Weekly College Basketball Preview (2/10/25)
In this weekly college basketball preview, we visit the Purdue Boilermakers twice before heading to the SEC for a pair of rivalry games, including an Iron Bowl matchup between the two top-ranked teams in the country.
Last week saw the #1 (Auburn) and #2 (Duke) ranked teams in the country lose. Auburn lost to the then sixth-ranked Florida Gators at home, snapping their 14-game winning streak. Duke lost to conference foe Clemson who jumped back into the Top 25 with a victory. How about the ACC getting a second team back in the ranking?
Did those games tell us much? Not really. Auburn is still ranked #1 in the latest polls. Florida moved up three spots in the polls (from 6 to 3), but it wasn’t a huge surprise. The Gators had already beaten Tennessee this season and have proven that they can compete with anyone in the country. Clemson is also a tough out and has probably been underrated this season. We said weeks ago that neither Auburn nor Duke were going to win out the rest of the season, and we were correct. Johni Broome and Cooper Flagg both scored 18 points in their team’s losses, resulting in a stalemate in terms of the Player of the Year race.
That was about the only thing we were correct about last week. We were 3-5 in our picks last week, bringing our season record to a less than stellar 17-14. We picked against Rick Pitino and the Red Storm twice last week; maybe it’s time to stop picking against the “new sheriff in the Big [East].”
Tuesday, February 11th
#3 Florida at #22 Mississippi State
Mississippi State needs to jump start their season again as they welcome the Florida Gators to Starkville. They beat Georgia by one point in their last game, but their previous losses to Alabama and Missouri leave the Bulldogs in eighth place in the SEC standings. Alabama and Missouri both scored 88 points against Mississippi State. That’s just about both schools’ average for the season. Unfortunately, Mississippi State averages less than 80 points per game. The Bulldogs are going to be in trouble if they can’t get their defense going against Florida’s high scoring offense.
Florida, on the other hand, is riding high after knocking off Auburn. Alex Condon scored 17 points against the Tigers. In Florida’s three conference losses this season, Condon has been held to single digits. If the sophomore big man has another strong offensive showing against Mississippi State, it is going to be a long night for the Bulldogs.
WINNER: FLORIDA
#5 Tennessee at #15 Kentucky
We did an extensive breakdown of these teams’ first meeting, and we expect this game to be just as good as the first. What we don’t expect is for Tennessee to shoot 45 three-pointers this time around. Hopefully the Volunteers have learned their lesson.
Tennessee is on a 3-game winning streak after beating Florida, Missouri and Oklahoma. Since beating Tennessee at the end of January, Kentucky has lost two of their last three. In those losses, the Wildcats gave up 89 points to Arkansas and 98 points to Mississippi; both teams average less than 80 points per game for the season.
We picked Tennessee in the first meeting (and were wrong), but we are sticking with it. Kentucky’s defense needs to be better for them to compete in these games, and it has been too inconsistent to feel good about picking them.
WINNER: TENNESSEE
#7 Purdue at #20 Michigan
In the first of Purdue’s big games this week, they travel to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines. These teams already played once this season. The Boilermakers beat Michigan by 27 points and started their current 4-game winning streak. Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn have continued their dominance over Big Ten opponents during the win streak and don’t show any signs of slowing down.
Michigan has also won four games in a row heading into this one. Their largest margin of victory in those wins was four points, and none of those games were against a ranked opponent. Michigan is hoping that Danny Wolf can improve on his 4-point, 2-rebound performance from their first game against Purdue. The Wolverines will need both of their big men to be firing on all cylinders to have a chance in this one.
Ultimately, we don’t think Michigan is good enough to compete with Purdue this season. Purdue has two of the best players in the country, and they are playing better team basketball right now.
WINNER: PURDUE
Saturday, February 15th
#16 Wisconsin at #7 Purdue
Sticking with Purdue, they follow up the Michigan game with another tough one against Wisconsin. The Badgers are on a 3-game winning streak and have worked themselves into the 16th spot in the AP Poll. But Wisconsin’s strong play has been a little deceiving; they have not beaten a ranked opponent since beating Arizona on November 15th, 2024.
The Badgers are a good basketball team, and John Tonje is having as good a season as anyone in the Big Ten. But they are not on the same level as Purdue. If the Boilermakers play well, we expect a victory for the home team in West Lafayette.
WINNER: PURDUE
#6 Houston at #13 Arizona
This game has become a lot more interesting than it was a few weeks ago. Back then, Arizona was unranked, and it was starting to look like the Wildcats would not live up to their preseason top 10 ranking. Then Arizona beat Iowa State before knocking off Arizona State, BYU and Texas Tech. They are currently on a 6-game winning streak and back to #13 in the polls. The impressive thing about the win over Texas Tech was that Caleb Love didn’t even play very well. He scored 16 points on 4-15 shooting, but Jaden Bradley and Tobe Awaka picked up the slack.
Houston continues to be one of the top teams in the country. They combine a level of physicality that most teams can’t match with the best three-point shooting in the Big 12. That has turned out to be a great combination for the Cougars. Houston doesn’t have a single rotation player taller than 6’8”, but J’Wan Roberts and the Cougars play much bigger than their listed heights.
We love these games of contrasting styles. Arizona leads the conference in scoring at almost 83 points per game. Houston leads the conference in defense, only allowing 57 points per game. Something is going to give in this one. We think Houston is the better team (for now), but Arizona is hot and will benefit from a raucous crowd at the McKale Center. We will probably regret it next week, but we will take the Wildcats.
WINNER: ARIZONA
#1 Auburn at #2 Alabama
Auburn vs. Alabama is the game of the year in college basketball. It is special anytime a number 1 plays a number 2. Combine that with the fact that these two schools have one of the fiercest rivalries in college sports, and we have a game to remember on our hands. Check out the Pomeroy ratings for these teams if you want to get a sense for how competitive this game is going to be.
From a scheduling perspective, both teams have games this week prior to the big one on Saturday. Auburn takes on a tough Vanderbilt team in Nashville. Alabama plays a feisty Texas team in Austin. Neither team has a leg up in that regard.
Auburn is the better defensive team while Alabama has a slightly better scoring offense. We expect Alabama to push the pace in an effort to turn the game into a track meet. Auburn’s loss to Florida provides Alabama with a good blueprint for how to attack the Tigers. Auburn has the overall advantage in size and physicality and should win the battle on the boards. Although both teams are good enough to win playing either style, the team that can impose their will on the game is going to have a huge advantage.
Besides the stylistic differences, Alabama and Auburn have a lot in common. Johni Broome and Grant Nelson are two of the best big men in the country. Both teams have sensational freshman guards in Tahaad Pettiford and Labaron Philon. Mark Sears and Chad Baker-Mazara are both experienced senior guards that make their team’s offenses go. Auburn is the more experienced team, but Alabama has the benefit of playing at home.
This game is a toss-up. Home crowds matter in these games, and Alabama’s fans are going to lose their minds when the game tips off. But if there is a team in the country that won’t be bothered by a hostile environment, it is Auburn. They are too good and too experienced to be taken out of their game by some wild fraternity boys. We think Auburn is slightly better. WAR EAGLE!
WINNER: AUBURN
#22 Mississippi State at #19 Ole Miss
It is a shame that this game is on the same day as Auburn vs. Alabama. Another in-state rivalry and a rematch of an overtime thriller. Ordinarily, this would probably be the game of the week. But in the SEC this year, games like this have become commonplace.
Mississippi is playing better basketball right now. The Rebels beat Kentucky last week, and Sean Pedulla only scored eight points in that game. That kind of performance speaks to the Rebels’ offensive depth, something that Mississippi State can’t match.
For the Bulldogs to have a chance, they are going to have to make this an ugly affair. If they can turn the game into a rock fight, they may be able to pull out a win in Oxford. We are guessing that they won’t.
WINNER: MISSISSIPPI
Sunday, February 16th
#24 Creighton at #9 St. John’s
This is an interesting game. RJ Luis has been playing out of his mind, and St. John’s beat Marquette and UConn last week. It’s tough to pick against a team that is playing that well. But Creighton also beat Marquette last week, and the Bluejays beat St. John’s earlier in the year.
The Red Storm don’t have a ton of size, and Ryan Kalkbrenner exploited that in the first matchup, scoring 16 points on 8-12 shooting. RJ Luis also played his worst offensive game of the season against Creighton, and we don’t expect that to happen again.
We don’t want anyone to feel like we are short-changing Creighton and St. John’s here. This should be an exciting game. As the only game between Top 25 teams on Sunday, we will be watching. But we already said that we would learn our lesson from picking against St. John’s twice in the last weekly college basketball preview, and we are staying true to our word.
WINNER: ST. JOHN’S
