Weekly College Basketball Preview (1/27/25)
In this weekly college basketball preview, we will once again be spending most of our time in the South with a bevy of great matchups between SEC opponents. There is also a Big 12 battle and a Big East showdown to preview.
Last week we learned that no lead is safe in college basketball with dramatic comebacks galore, including two games that we previewed. Texas A&M outscored Ole Miss 11-2 in the last two minutes to win 63-62. Then the Texas Longhorns overcame a 22-point deficit to defeat the same Texas A&M Aggies. Finally, the Houston Cougars came back from six to tie it with less than 30 seconds left in overtime against Kansas; they would go on to win the game in double overtime.
Brilliant comebacks and epic collapses are nothing new in college basketball. The nature of the game lends itself to scoring runs. A deficit can become an advantage in no time flat, and it is difficult to stop the bleeding once it has started. But remember this in March. Some teams are prone to giving up leads in late game situations, and some teams have a knack for coming up with a key stop or big shot to stem the tide.
We were 4-2 for our picks in last week’s preview, bringing our record for the season up to 11-5. If Ole Miss hadn’t forgotten how to hold on to the basketball for two minutes, we would have been 5-1. But who’s counting?
Besides the Top 25 matchups we review in more detail later, there are a few interesting games we want to highlight in our weekly college basketball preview:
- Wake Forest at #21 Louisville. Wake Forest is doesn’t yet have an invitation to the dance despite giving Duke a run for their money last weekend. A win on the road against a Top 25 team would help the Demon Deacons’ cause.
- #6 Houston at West Virginia. Houston’s win over Kansas was huge, but they need to keep their collective foot on the gas if they want to make a run at a #1 seed. West Virginia has lost two straight games to mediocre teams, falling out of the Top 25. A win against Houston gets them back in.
- Texas at #23 Ole Miss. Texas has won two straight games and is looking to get to 0.500 in the conference. Ole Miss has lost three in a row and needs to right the ship. Both teams are circling around the middle of the SEC and need a win here if they want a shot at finishing in the top half of the conference.
- #16 Oregon at UCLA. The Bruins nipped the Ducks by two points in their first matchup of the season, 73-71. This will be a fun rematch, but, more importantly, it’ll be a beautiful game to watch with these uniforms flying up and down John Wooden court.
- North Carolina at #2 Duke. Throw out the records. Throw out the rankings. Enjoy the best rivalry in college basketball.
- Arkansas at #12 Kentucky. Normally we wouldn’t expect this to be a great basketball game. If John Calipari has anything hidden up his sleeve, expect him to pull it out in his return to Lexington.
Tuesday, January 28th
#12 Kentucky at #8 Tennessee
We will say it again. We can’t remember a team that was ranked higher in the AP Poll than they were in their conference standings. But that is where Kentucky finds itself now. They have a ton of talent, and their national ranking is warranted. But two-straight conference losses (Alabama and Vanderbilt) have led to a 3-3 SEC record for the Wildcats. Kentucky’s win over Florida feels like a lifetime ago, and they need a win over Tennessee to keep up with the other SEC heavyweights.
Tennessee faces off against Kentucky three days after losing a bruising game to the Auburn Tigers by two points. The Volunteers have yet to beat anyone above them in the SEC standings. While Kentucky is not in that group, a win over the Wildcats would strengthen their resume for tournament seeding.
This game is a study in contrasting styles. Kentucky boasts the second-best scoring offense in the SEC. Tennessee allows the fewest points per game. We can’t wait to see Kentucky’s guard-heavy offense try to score against Tennessee’s overwhelming perimeter defense. We think Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler will find their shooting touch at home against Kentucky’s porous defense.
WINNER: TENNESSEE
Wednesday, January 29th
#4 Alabama at #14 Mississippi State
The Crimson Tide recovered from their loss to Mississippi by rattling off three straight wins, the most impressive being at Kentucky. That lone conference loss to the Rebels was the only time Alabama has scored fewer than 80 points (64). Give credit to Ole Miss, but don’t expect Alabama to shoot 25% from three-point range again in this one.
After beating Ole Miss, Mississippi State lost to Tennessee and squeaked out an overtime win against South Carolina. They scored 56 and 65 points in those games, respectively. If they can’t score more than that, it is going to be a long night for the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State has got to turn this into an ugly game to have a chance. Physical defense and offensive rebounding are the keys to success. They won’t be able to keep up in a track meet and need to hold the Crimson Tide below 80 to have a realistic chance at winning. We don’t expect that to happen.
WINNER: ALABAMA
Saturday, February 1st
#5 Florida at #8 Tennessee
What a week for Tennessee. Four days after playing Kentucky, they take on a Florida team that beat them by 30 earlier in the season. At least both games are at home. We don’t know if the fact that Kentucky and Florida are very similar stylistically is good or bad for the Volunteers. Kentucky plays at the second-fastest pace in the conference; Florida is third-fastest. Kentucky averages the second-most points per game in the conference; Florida averages the third-most. Tennessee will not be surprised by their opponent’s pace, but they will need some time in the cold plunge on Saturday afternoon.
Florida, on the other hand, has all week to prepare for Tennessee. They stomped Georgia at home in their last outing and will be well rested before traveling to Knoxville. The Gators had 14 steals against the Bulldogs. When they are that disruptive defensively, Florida is tough to beat.
It is extremely difficult to beat a team as good as Tennessee twice in a season. We would normally pick the Volunteers here, especially playing at home. But we think Florida might just have their number. After what promises to be a grueling test against Kentucky, we don’t think Tennessee will be able to keep up with the Gators.
WINNER: FLORIDA
#20 Missouri at #14 Mississippi State
Missouri has been a pleasant surprise this season, starting conference play with a 5-2 record. They kick off a tough three-game stretch with this one before taking on Tennessee and Texas A&M. Normally we would not say this, but the game against the #14 seed in the country is probably the most winnable on paper. If the Tigers are going to maintain their place in the conference standings, they need to get this one.
The Bulldogs can’t afford to look ahead to this game with Alabama coming to town before then. Mississippi State needs to address its offensive struggles to have a chance in either of these games. They average just over 80 points per game for the season but scored 56 in a loss to Tennessee and 65 in an overtime win against South Carolina. Mississippi State shot poorly in those games, and Josh Hubbard needs to return to form.
Tamar Bates absolutely lit up the Ole Miss Rebels in Missouri’s last game, scoring 26 points and making four of his six three-point attempts. The Tigers live and die by the three. They shoot it at the second highest percentage (37%) in the conference (barely behind Texas). In three of the Tigers’ four losses this season, they shot below 30% from long range. Mississippi State’s opponents average 34% on threes for the season.
We think Missouri’s hot shooting continues against the Bulldogs.
WINNER: MISSOURI
#1 Auburn at #23 Ole Miss
No disrespect to Ole Miss, but the most interesting thing about this game is how Johni Broome looks on his gimpy ankle. The Tigers’ star returned to the lineup against Tennessee last Saturday; while he played well and had a good stat line, he was clearly not 100%. Auburn takes on LSU on Wednesday night before playing Mississippi on Saturday. Broome looking more comfortable in the second game of the week will help Auburn fans breathe a little easier.
Mississippi will have an emotional game on Wednesday when Texas, coach Chris Beard’s former team, comes to town. Then they turn around and play the #1 team in the country on Saturday. We like Mississippi, but not in this spot. Give us the Tigers.
WINNER: AUBURN
#22 Texas Tech at #6 Houston
Texas Tech, congratulations on being included in the Top 25 for the first time this season. To celebrate your accomplishment, we got you a game on the road against the Houston Cougars!
Tech can’t forget that they have a midweek game against TCU, but the main event is their showdown with Houston on Saturday. The Red Raiders have reeled off four straight wins after losing in overtime to Iowa State. That stretch included an impressive win over Arizona.
Houston faces a big challenge this week with a game at West Virginia preceding the tilt against Texas Tech. After their late game heroics against Kansas, the Cougars have won 12 straight games and are playing as well as anyone in the country.
While Houston and Texas Tech are first and second in three-point shooting percentage in the Big 12, do not expect this to be a high-scoring affair. Tech averages 82 points per contest, but Houston leads the league in points allowed, giving up less than 56 points per game. Texas Tech is a deserving Top 25 team, and we have loved watching JT Toppin’s breakout season unfold. But we think Houston at home is too much for the Red Raiders to handle.
WINNER: HOUSTON
#25 UConn at #9 Marquette
UConn will be Marquette’s first real test since facing Creighton almost a full month prior. The Big East is just weak this year. Marquette has been methodically working their way through the conference schedule, and a two-point loss to Xavier was their lone conference hiccup. That said, they are not killing teams like we would expect the ninth ranked team in the country to do. Most of their wins are by single digits, and they are not playing world beaters.
UConn may be the most disappointing team in the country. The Huskies proved to be unworthy of their preseason #3 ranking with three straight losses in the Maui Invitational. In conference play, they lost to Villanova, Creighton and Xavier. All the losses were competitive, but UConn needs to win this game if they want to announce themselves as a contender this season.
Marquette is a better basketball team right now. While we keep waiting for UConn to impress, the reality is that this team is simply not as good as Dan Hurley’s last two squads. Being on par with repeat national champions is a high bar, and we are going to stop waiting for this year’s team to reach that peak. We are taking the Golden Eagles here.
WINNER: MARQUETTE
