Who is going to be the 2025 College Basketball Player of the Year?
With half of the season behind us, it is time to predict who is going to be the 2025 College Basketball Player of the Year. These players have played close to twenty games at this point. That is a large enough body of work to have a good feel for who the favorites are. Barring injury, we feel confident that their performances are not going to drastically change from this point forward.
Many of you are wondering what the point of this exercise is. Isn’t Cooper Flagg going to run away with the award? After all, he entered the season as the favorite to be the first pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, and his performance to date has not done anything to dissuade NBA teams from that opinion.
We understand the sentiment but are going to do it anyway. It has already been established that we love the exercise of ranking things. So yes, we are motivated by self-interest in this case. But we also believe that handing the award to Flagg without a real evaluation does a disservice to the rest of the field. This has been a great year in terms of the depth of talent, and we want to take some time to appreciate the great players and great performances we have seen. And who knows? Maybe we won’t predict a win for the consensus favorite. You will have to read the article to find out.
When it comes to putting these rankings together, we try to be systematic. Compiling the relevant statistics for all the players on our watch list is the first step to grouping and ranking the players. The next step is determining a baseline for what it takes to win the college basketball Player of the Year award (for clarity, we are talking about the Wooden Award). Granted, the statistical averages are all relative to the season in which the player is competing. If the leading scorers this year all score less than previous winners, there is still going to be a Player of the Year. But are there any other requirements or disqualifying factors?
Yes, kind of…. How about that for an answer? We reviewed all the Player of the Year award winners since the 2010-2011 season (that is fourteen seasons in total). Only two of the fourteen winners played on teams that won the National Championship, and six of the fourteen winners made it to the Final Four. We should remind you that there was not a national champion or a Final Four in the Covid-shortened 2019-2020 season. Regardless, we think it is fair to say that you do not need to make it to the Final Four to win the Player of the Year award.
Does the winner have to play on a good team? The answer to this question is emphatically yes. Of the last fourteen winners, the award winner’s team averaged almost thirty-one wins. In fact, thirty-one wins is enough to say that the winners must play on a really good, if not great, team. Luka Garza of Iowa won the award for the 2020-2021 season on a team that went 22-9, but that was a shortened season that did not begin until the end of November. Fair to say that you cannot win the Player of the Year award if your team doesn’t win games.
How many games does the winner need to play? The real question here is whether the winner can have an injury-shortened season. If someone dominates twenty games before missing the rest of the season, can they win the Player of the Year award? The short answer is no. The last fourteen award winners averaged thirty-six games played, including the two shortened seasons affected by Covid. Safe to say that you need to stay healthy to win the award.
We have established that you need great individual stats on a talented team in a relatively healthy season to compete for the title of Player of the Year. We are going to sum each player’s per game averages for points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks to get what we will call each player’s Composite Average. The Composite Average will be used to rank the players before we tweak the order based on some other qualitative factors. We are exhausted now. But we are also ready. If it’s okay with you, let’s see who is going to be the 2025 College Basketball Player of the Year.
Honorable Mention
Airious Bailey and Dylan Harper, Rutgers
Bailey, 19.9 points per game and 7.9 rebounds per game, and Harper, 19.3 points per game and 5.1 rebounds per game, have exceeded expectations as they have torched college basketball this season. Harper scored 37 points in a loss to Alabama, and Bailey scored 39 points in a loss to Indiana. But the supporting cast has not been there for the Scarlet Knights, and finishing in the bottom third of the conference is not good enough to put either freshman phenom into the conversation for Player of the Year.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton
The senior big man has been a model of consistency over the course of his career at Creighton, averaging over 17 points per game this season while averaging the same in his junior year and almost 16 in his sophomore year. Add that scoring ability to being a 3x Big East Defensive Player of the Year, and you can see why he deserved a mention here.
Alex Karaban, Connecticut
Karaban is having an excellent junior season, leading the Husking in scoring at 15.8 points per game. He has improved statistically every season and is the only player mentioned in this article competing for a third straight national championship. There are flashier players out there, but not many are as solid as Karaban in every phase of the game. Connecticut got off to a rough start in Maui and haven’t lived up to expectations so far. We expect Karaban to get them back on track before this thing is over.
Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue
Kaufman-Renn is having a great season for the Boilermakers, averaging 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Unfortunately for him, he is only having the second-best individual season for a Purdue player this year (more on that later). We cannot have two players from the same team in the Top 10 of the ranking unless that team is clearly the best team in the country.
Chaz Lanier, Tennessee
One of the downsides to using stats as a baseline is that sometimes you get strange results. Lanier has been as good a player as anyone in the nation. He is averaging 18.4 points per game on 43% three-point shooting. His perimeter defense has been terrific all season, and he is the best player on a team that is ranked sixth in the country. For whatever reason, his Composite Average doesn’t put him into the Top 10. An extra assist or rebound here or there is all it would take. Do we think Lanier is as good a player as some that are ranked below? Absolutely.
Maxime Raynaud, Stanford
Raynaud has the highest Composite Average of any player in our ranking. Yes, really. He is averaging 20.8 points and 11.6 rebounds per game, leading the team in both categories. But Stanford has struggled so far this year, losing games to Grand Canyon and Cal Poly. 7th place in the ACC standings is not good enough. A one-point win over North Carolina has the Cardinal faithful feeling a little better, but it will take more for Raynaud to vault himself into the Player of the Year conversation.
JT Toppin, Texas Tech
The transfer from New Mexico has been playing great basketball this season. Toppin is averaging 16.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game for the Red Raiders. Tech lost their two leading scorers from last season, but Toppin has more than made up for their absence. He is the major reason the Red Raiders have been able to keep pace with last season’s impressive performance. Toppin has missed time this season with a leg injury, but his performance when healthy has been stellar.
10. Mark Sears, Alabama
Mark Sears has been too good for Alabama this year to be left off this list. Sears was a 2nd Team All-American last season. While his scoring has dipped this year, he is still leading the SEC with 19.0 points per game. He is the best offensive player on a Crimson Tide team that has started the year with a 16-3 record. Alabama has established itself as one of the best teams in the country, and Sears has established himself in our Top 10 Player of the Year candidates.
9. RJ Luis, St. John’s
RJ Luis has made a leap in his junior season. His scoring average has increased from 10.9 points per game to 17.8. Rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per game have all increased as well. St. John’s is currently first in the Big East conference standings despite losing its top three scorers from last season (when they finished fifth in the conference). Luis deserves a ton of credit for elevating the program.
8. Eric Dixon, Villanova
Dixon has stuffed the stat sheet for Villanova, leading the nation in scoring at 24.9 points per game. Unfortunately for him, Villanova is mired in a mediocre season. Fifth place in the Big East with several bad losses is not what the Wildcats were hoping for. If Villanova was having a more Villanova-like season, Dixon would undoubtedly be in the top five of this ranking. It is a testament to his outstanding individual play that he ended up in the eighth spot.
7. Hunter Dickinson, Kansas
Dickinson’s decision to return to Kansas for his senior year vaulted Kansas to the #1 spot in the preseason rankings. While three losses in the month of December dropped the Jayhawks down in the polls (currently 12th), Dickinson’s performance has been stellar, averaging 15.8 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. Down slightly from last year, Dickinson is also averaging his fewest minutes played per game since his freshman year. Expect fresher legs to benefit Dickinson in March.
6. Braden Smith, Purdue
Zach Edey overshadowed Braden Smith the last two years in West Lafayette. Playing with the back-to-back Player of the Year award winner will do that to you. Matt Painter gave Smith the keys to the car this season, and he is taking full advantage. Smith leads the Big 10 in assists per game with 8.9 while also scoring 15.0 points per game. Losing a player like Edey would cripple most teams, but Smith has them rolling and is looking to make another tournament run.
5. Javon Small, West Virginia
Javon Small’s season is one of the reasons we like following the numbers when putting together these rankings. Casual fans may not be familiar with his game, but Small is a do-it-all guard, scoring 19.5 points per game while dishing out 5.1 assists, grabbing 5.1 rebounds and swiping 1.8 steals per game as well.
Small is the pacesetter for a Mountaineers team that has crushed expectations. Picked to finish 13th in the conference, West Virginia is currently sixth and ranked 23rd in the nation. You can forgive the voters for doubting West Virginia; they were 9-23 last year. The biggest difference is having Small in the lineup. He transferred from Oklahoma State and immediately changed the fortunes of the program.
Watch out in transition if Small has the ball in his hands. His ability to transition from one end of the court to another is on par with anyone in the country. Small’s six free throw attempts per game are evidence of his aggressive offensive style. If you have not seen Javon Small play this year, go ahead and check out West Virginia’s next televised game. You will be glad that you did.
4. Kameron Jones, Marquette
While Small is having a great year, Kameron Jones is matching him stat for stat while playing for a much better Marquette team this season. The senior has improved every season, and his averages of 19.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.7 steals are as good as anyone’s.
Jones was Marquette’s leading scorer last season as well. But Tyler Kolek and his 7.7 assists per game led some (not us of course) to discount Jones’s production. There is no question about who is in the driver’s seat for Marquette this season. With Kolek now in the NBA, Jones has increased his scoring and is leading the team in assists.
Jones’s game is noteworthy for how under control he is. He seems to play at a measured pace. You don’t see circus shots on his highlight reel because he doesn’t put himself in those situations. He is as athletic as anyone in the country, but he almost holds it in reserve until necessary. Jones plays basketball like a great chess player, always a couple moves ahead of the opponent.
Kameron Jones is having a tremendous year, and he is putting himself in the conversation for the 2025 College Basketball Player of the Year.
3. PJ Haggerty, Memphis
Haggerty is another player that transferred this season (from Tulsa) and is making an immediate impact. His scoring obviously travels well. He averaged 21.2 points per game for the Golden Hurricane last season and has improved that to 22.1 points per game in Memphis.
PJ Haggerty is one of the most well-rounded scorers in the country. Three pointers, mid-range, rebound putbacks. He can score from anywhere on the court, and he may be the best finisher of tough shots here. Compared to some others on this list, Haggerty doesn’t demonstrate dominating athleticism. Some guys just have a nose for the ball, and for the bucket.
Memphis is off to a 14-4 start to the season. If Haggerty continues to put the ball in the basket, expect Memphis to make some noise in March.
1. Cooper Flagg, Duke and Johni Broome, Auburn
Let us be honest for just a second. As great as all the players we have mentioned have been this year, this was a two-horse race from the start. Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome have dominated college basketball this season, and both deserve to be the 2025 College Basketball Player of the Year.
Before you throw something at your computer screen or toss your phone into the nearest trash can, we will pick a winner in this article. This is not soccer and cannot end in a tie. Hoops Heaven has too much journalistic integrity to string you along this far without making a prediction. But in a race that is this close and this entertaining, we believe that it is right to talk about them as a pair. Let’s get into it.
Broome’s Auburn Tigers are currently the #1 ranked team in the country, while Flagg’s Blue Devils are nipping at their heels in the #2 spot. Auburn’s only loss this year came at the hands of the Blue Devils in a six-point nail biter on Duke’s home court. Duke has lost twice this season, a five-point loss to Kentucky and a three-point loss to Kansas. The current kenpom ratings have the rankings reversed, with Duke in the top spot. Despite their head-to-head matchup, it is impossible to say which one of these teams is better right now. We can only hope that we get to see a rematch in the national championship.
As similarly as their team’s seasons have gone (at least from a success perspective), these two players could not be any more different in terms of their basketball background.
Flagg is a freshman from Maine who spent his summer scrimmaging against Team USA in the lead-up to the Olympics. He is the presumptive first pick in this year’s NBA Draft and was destined for basketball greatness since he was in middle school.
Broome is playing his fifth year of college basketball, honing his skills at Morehead State before transferring to Auburn in his third year. After transferring, Broome had no trouble acclimating to the stronger competition in the SEC. He averaged 14.2 points per game in his first season with the Tigers before increasing that figure to 16.5 points per game in his second year. Broome’s draft buzz was not strong enough to warrant a move to the NBA, so he returned to Auburn on a mission.
So here we are. Broome and Flagg have the two highest Composite Averages in basketball his year (actually, they are both behind Maxime Raynaud; while he is a tremendous story in his own right, he is not in the conversation for this award). Broome is averaging 17.9 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. Flagg is averaging 19.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. We do prefer Broome’s offensive efficiency; he is shooting 55% from the field compared to Flagg’s 49%. But their stats are similar enough to not swing the race.
The Wooden Award’s website describes the award as going to “the outstanding college basketball player in the United States.” Fairly vague and not particularly helpful, but it is clear the award is not tied to who has the most potential as a professional. It goes to whoever has the best season in college basketball.
Can the historical winners help us to read the tea leaves? The statistical performances of the winners are inconsistent, but there is one interesting fact that might help us. There have only been three freshmen that won the award since its inception in 1977: Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson. Cooper Flagg’s season is comparable to any of the three. We have already determined that Flagg is worthy. But there have been a ton of great freshman seasons, and only three have come away with the hardware. Knowing that and knowing how close this race is, we are ready to decide.
Johni Broome is going to win the 2025 College Basketball Player of the Year award.
We believe that Broome is the best player in the country right now. He has put up great numbers and led his team to the #1 spot in the polls. Doing both of those in a historically dominant SEC has got to count for something. Granted, Broome has currently missed the last two games with a sprained ankle. But Auburn does not play again until Saturday, and Broome has only missed two games. Missing another game or two will not be an issue for him.
Unless, of course, his injured ankle causes him to miss another five or ten games. If that happens, then…
