Weekly College Basketball Preview (2/3/25)

In this weekly college basketball preview, we are spending more time in the Big East with two matchups involving the top three teams in the conference. Before we dive into this week’s games, we have to ask: what happened in college basketball last Saturday?

• #3 Iowa State lost to Kansas State by nineteen points.
• #5 Florida lost to #8 Tennessee by twenty points.
• #6 Houston lost to #22 Texas Tech in overtime.
• #7 Michigan State lost to USC by six points.
• #9 Marquette lost to #25 UConn by eight points.
• #11 Kansas lost to Baylor by eleven points.
• #12 Kentucky lost to Arkansas by ten points.
• #14 Mississippi State lost to #20 Missouri by 27 points.
• #21 Louisville lost to Georgia Tech by seven points.
• #24 Vanderbilt lost to Oklahoma by thirty points.

Ten teams in the Top 25 (based on last week’s rankings) lost to lower-seeded or unranked teams. Some of those were close games that could have gone either way. Four of the ten upsets took place in the SEC where the depth of the league lends itself to upsets. But in six of those games, an unranked team beat a ranked opponent. And six of those upsets were by ten or more points.

Are there not any truly great teams in college basketball this season? Well, Auburn, Duke and Alabama took care of business last weekend, and we believe that those are probably the three best teams in the country right now. They will not go undefeated the rest of the year, but they show the consistency you would expect from teams of that quality. Many of the other Top 25 teams have had rollercoaster years, with exhilarating wins followed by unconscionable losses.

In the 2016 college basketball season (picked randomly), there were 44 different teams ranked in the Top 25. Similarly, in the 2011 college basketball season (also picked randomly), there were 46. So far this season, there have already been 47 teams ranked in the top 25, and we still have two months of games left.

That statistic may not ultimately mean much, but it is an interesting data point. There has been no shortage of articles attributing the changes in college basketball to NIL and the transfer portal. We agree that those have had an impact; how could we not? After all, BYU just landed the top high school recruit in the 2025 class, AJ Dybantsa, and he’s not the only top talent headed to Provo. How much of his commitment was NIL-driven and how much was based on head coach Kevin Young’s recruiting skill and NBA pedigree? We do not have an answer to that, but BYU is obviously not a common destination for recruits at his level.

There may be more parity in college basketball as a result of these structural changes. Maybe we are just making too much out of one Saturday in February. While there seems to be a negative sentiment in the “changes to the landscape”-type articles (we might be overly sensitive), we would argue that more competition is good for college basketball. More competitive games are generally good for the fans and viewers of college basketball. The one-and-done era was supposed to kill college basketball as well. While it changed the sport, college basketball is very much still alive. So don’t worry too much about the upsets and embrace the uncertainty. And, most of all, prepare yourselves for a wild March.

We were 3-4 in last week’s predictions, bringing our yearly record to 14-9. Yes, we are trying to hide this statistic at the bottom of the introduction. We have already established that last week was wild. No one could have predicted those outcomes, and our predictions will almost certainly return to form this week. Still, do not make any wagers based on these predictions.

Monday, February 3^rd

#8 Iowa State at #16 Kansas

On January 15^th, the Iowa State Cyclones beat the Kansas Jayhawks in Ames by a score of 74-57. At the time, the expectation was that the rematch in Lawrence was either going to be a great matchup between two heavyweights or a chance for Kansas to get their revenge. Instead, we head into this game perplexed by both teams’ recent struggles.

Kansas has lost three of their last six games. None of them were terrible losses: the aforementioned Iowa State game, Houston in a heart-breaking double overtime loss and Baylor. The Baylor Bears are the weakest of those teams, and they are ranked 25^th in the Pomeroy college basketball rankings. The Jayhawks dealt with some injuries during that stretch as well, with Dajuan Harris and KJ Adams both missing games. Before anyone in Lawrence starts to panic, we want to acknowledge that Kansas is not falling apart. But they are also not displaying the kind of dominance that we have come to expect from a Jayhawks basketball team. They have had trouble closing out games, leading Houston by six points with less than 30 seconds left and taking a 19-point lead into halftime against Baylor before being outscored by 30 points in the second frame.

Iowa State has also looked beatable lately. They have lost two games in a row, one against a hot Arizona team on the road but the other against a middling Kansas State team at home. Arizona is leading the Big 12 conference standings, and it took a Caleb Love buzzer-beater for the Wildcats to send that game to overtime. No shame in losing that one. The Kansas State loss was inexcusable. Iowa State was outrebounded and turned the ball over 18 times (versus their season average of eleven). Kansas State also shot 50% from three-point range. Maybe Iowa State looked past Kansas State in their anticipation for this game. That happens in college basketball, but it still shouldn’t result in a 19-point loss at home to a team that is below 0.500 for the season.

Picking a winner between two teams that have looked so shaky is difficult. Who is going to show up for this one? We don’t know, but Allen Fieldhouse is a tough place to play. We like the revenge angle for Kansas. And Hunter Dickinson was held to six points on 3-9 shooting in the first round of the season series; we expect him to be aggressive this time around.

WINNER: KANSAS

Tuesday, February 4^th

#11 Marquette at #12 St. John’s

This is the Big East game of the year so far this season, pitting the first (St. John’s) and second place (Marquette) teams in the conference standings against each other. St. John’s has been white hot, winning eight straight games after losing their conference opener to Creighton. Four of those last eight were by single digits, and St. John’s only truly convincing wins in that stretch came against Seton Hall and Georgetown.  Marquette lost their last outing to Connecticut but had won three straight games before that.

St. John’s and Marquette are second and third in scoring per game, respectively. The Red Storm are first in the conference in points allowed while the Golden Eagles are third. Both teams are poor shooting teams that lead rely on aggressive defenses, leading the league in steals. Statistically, these teams are carbon copies of each other, even down to their do-everything guards that are two of the best players in the country.

Ultimately, we believe Marquette is a better basketball team. Their strength of schedule has been significantly more difficult this season. St. John’s winning streak is admirable, and we typically like to take a hot team. But Marquette’s loss to UConn was an anomaly; the Huskies shot 63% from three-point range. Without that loss, Marquette would be on a nice win streak as well. Give us the Golden Eagles in a close game.

WINNER: MARQUETTE

#14 Kentucky at #25 Ole Miss

It is saying something that Ole Miss can lose four out of their last five games and remain in the Top 25. The brutal schedule continues for the Rebels with Kentucky coming to Oxford. Kentucky needs to regroup after losing their last game to John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks.

Everyone should take a second to appreciate the season that Sean Pedulla is having for the Rebels. He is 16^th in the SEC in points per game, 12^th in assists per game, 2^nd in steals per game and 11^th in points produced. Pedulla is not a conference player of the year candidate, but he has been the leader of a team that has been one of the most consistently competitive in the SEC. The Rebels have not lost a game by more than ten points in conference play, and two of their SEC losses came by four points. He is a big reason why Mississippi is never out of the game.

We were so excited for Kentucky after they beat Tennessee. The Wildcats were about to show how good of a team they were and might even give Auburn and Alabama a run for their money down the stretch. Then Mark Pope’s squad lost to Arkansas, and we were back at square one. Is Kentucky talented? Yes. Have they been able to string wins together in conference play? No.

We are predicting a photo finish in this one. Kentucky is more talented, but Ole Miss plays everyone tough, especially at home. We don’t feel good about it, but we are taking the Wildcats.

WINNER: KENTUCKY

Wednesday, February 5^th

#15 Missouri at #4 Tennessee

Missouri is feeling good after finishing off a sweep of the Magnolia State, beating Mississippi by eight points before crushing Mississippi State by 27 points. Tennessee course corrected after their loss to Kentucky, beating Florida convincingly at home and avenging their earlier loss to the Gators.

We did an extensive breakdown of Tennessee’s loss to Kentucky and the dichotomy in styles between them. This game is very similar. Missouri is fourth in the SEC in scoring and is the best three-point shooting team in the conference now. The Tigers lead the conference in steals but are middle of the pack in points allowed per game. They are an undersized team by SEC standards, with no player taller than 6’8” playing more than 20 minutes per game. Missouri is great at turning steals into points but is also vulnerable in the half court against more physical teams. Tennessee is a great example of that type of team.

We have written more about Tennessee this season that we have about Auburn or Alabama, poor editorial work on our part. But the Volunteers are a fascinating team. They held Florida to 44 points over the weekend and looked like what we have come to expect defensively. More importantly, Tennessee only attempted 22 three-pointers. The Volunteers still shot poorly (6-22) from behind the stripe, but Tennessee was very effective getting to the basket and controlling the pace of the game.

We love Missouri’s story this season, and we hope they continue their strong play into the tournament. But if Tennessee is playing well, they are the better team. We will take the Volunteers.

WINNER: TENNESSEE

Friday, February 7^th

#12 St. John’s at #19 UConn

St. John’s follows up a tough game against Marquette with another challenging one, this time on the road against UConn. The Huskies have a huge schedule advantage, with nothing on the calendar this week before St. John’s.

We already mentioned UConn’s tremendous shooting against Marquette. Solomon Ball was 7-9 from deep and scored 25 points in a brilliant individual performance. We don’t think they will continue to shoot it like that, but it was still an impressive win. If UConn is going to go on a run this season, they need to win this one.

Connecticut is a talented team, but their up and down season has been head-scratching. They lost three games in Big East play before they had played either Marquette or St. John’s. Just to be clear, the Big East is not good this year. There are only two teams that can compete with them, and UConn has more talent on paper than either of them.

We love RJ Luis’s game and have really enjoyed St. John’s being relevant to college basketball again. But we think the back-to-back games against Marquette and UConn will expose them. We don’t love Dan Hurley’s sideline histrionics, but you can’t deny the success he has had. We will give him the benefit of the doubt and say that UConn is going to peak in the second half of the conference schedule.

WINNER UCONN

Saturday, February 8^th

#10 Texas A&M at #15 Missouri

The Tigers will be thrilled to get back to Mizzou Arena after playing at Tennessee earlier in the week. Missouri has not lost a conference game at home this season, with their only two SEC losses coming on the road to Auburn and Texas.

Texas A&M is looking to extend their winning streak to three after winning against Oklahoma and South Carolina. Two of their three losses in the SEC have come on the road, and one of their road wins (against Ole Miss) should have been a loss.

This is another offense versus defense matchup in the SEC. The Missouri Tigers are small and shoot the three really well. Texas A&M is the worst shooting team in the conference and play a physical brand of basketball. Big, physical teams can give the Tigers trouble, and Texas A&M plays much bigger than their listed heights would imply (only one player 6’9” or taller in the rotation).

Missouri has been playing better recently, and we’ll pick them to continue their winning streak against the Aggies.

WINNER: MISSOURI

#6 Florida at #1 Auburn

Johni Broome is back! In fairness to Johni, he only missed two and a half games with an ankle injury; it’s not like he was playing poorly. We picked Broome to be the 2025 College Basketball Player of the Year in our player of the year rankings even before he returned to action, but we were mildly concerned that his absence from the lineup would be longer than expected.

In his first game back against Tennessee, a visibly limping Broome scored 16 points and grabbed 14 rebounds. He notched 26 points and 16 rebounds in a win over LSU before scoring 20 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in a win over Ole Miss. Broome is fifth in the country in double-doubles this season despite the missed games, and none of the guys above him are playing a schedule as difficult as Auburn’s schedule.

Florida looked absolutely terrible in a twenty-point loss to Tennessee. They didn’t shoot the ball well, and they were significantly below their season average for rebounds. Florida only had one player, Walter Clayton Jr., score in double figures, and he scored 10 points while battling a rolled ankle. Florida kept it close through the first half against Tennessee but were outscored by 17 points in the second half when the wheels fell off.

Florida is a great basketball team. They are firmly in the second tier in the SEC, along with Kentucky and Tennessee. Any of those three teams can beat each other, and all three of them have played with an inconsistency that makes their games hard to predict. But Auburn is in the top-tier of the SEC with Alabama, and they are not going to lose to Florida at home.

WINNER: AUBURN

#13 Texas Tech at #20 Arizona

Get ready for a showdown in the desert!

We joked about Texas Tech having to play Houston in their first game as a ranked team. All they did was knock off the Cougars in overtime after their leading scorer was ejected four minutes into the game (that was a terrible call by the refs). Clearly, the Red Raiders are for real. Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams stepped up in Toppin’s absence and showed they have the kind of depth needed to be one of the best teams in the country.

Arizona is ranked again after being out of the Top 25 for two months. The Wildcats were ranked 10^th in the preseason poll, and they are finally starting to show why on the court. Arizona will always follow Caleb Love’s lead offensively; he was held to nine points in Arizona’s 16-point loss to Texas Tech earlier in the season. But when Love is playing well, Arizona can score points in bunches.

Both teams have challenging games earlier in the week (Arizona at BYU and Texas Tech at home against Baylor) so neither has a schedule advantage. Hard to pick against a team that just knocked off Houston, but we Arizona hasn’t lost a conference game at home this season. We think they will even the season series against Tech.

WINNER: ARIZONA