Big Game Breakdown: Kentucky Claims Victory over Tennessee
It has taken us a couple days to get our thoughts together, but we wanted to do a game breakdown of this week’s matchup between Kentucky and Tennessee. We predicted that Tennessee would win in our last weekly college basketball preview, and we want to come clean with that right off the bat. When you are wrong as often as we are, a willingness to admit it is mandatory. But we do not, even in the perfect hindsight of watching the game, disagree with the thought process that led to our prediction.
What We Knew about the Game
There were several things we knew about this matchup before tipoff.
It was going to be a competitive game. True, we weren’t really going out on a limb there considering these teams were ranked 8th and 12th in the country. Kentucky’s last game against a truly elite team was versus Alabama on January 18th. They lost by five points. Tennessee’s last game against an opponent of similar quality, the Auburn Tigers on January 25th, resulted in a two-point Volunteer loss. Both teams have proven that they show up to play competitive basketball against the best teams in the country. It would have been a shock for this game to be a blowout either way.
Both teams were hungry for a win against an opponent of this (and their own) quality. Neither team has had a ton of opportunities; after all, these are two of the best teams in the country. Tennessee beat Louisville and Illinois prior to conference play. Those are Top 25 teams, but neither is in the category we’re talking about here. SEC play has offered Tennessee games against Florida and Auburn; the Vols came up short in both. Kentucky had a stronger resume in terms of quality wins. They beat Duke in the third game of the season and Florida in their first conference game. But the Wildcats followed up the loss to Alabama with a loss to Vanderbilt, leading to a little concern that Mark Pope’s squad might be stagnating.
The Wildcats and Volunteers play very different styles of basketball. Kentucky plays the basketball equivalent of the hundred-yard dash. They are second in the SEC in pace and points per game (we would be lying if we claimed to know how the different pace metrics are calculated, but this passes the eye test. Check out the Pomeroy ratings for another pace metric if you’re interested). They are first in made three-pointers and assists per game. Kentucky flies up the court, moves the ball quickly and shoots a lot of threes. That’s a great formula for success considering they are also the best three-point shooting team in the conference. The downside is that offensive firepower comes at the expense of defense. Kentucky gives up the second most points per game in the SEC.
Tennessee is the opposite in almost every regard. The Volunteers lead the SEC in points allowed per game and hold opponents to the lowest three-point shooting percentage in the country at 26.5%. They don’t lead the league in blocks or steals; their success stems from hard-nosed, tenacious defense that forces opponents into difficult shots. Tennessee plays at the slowest pace and averages the second fewest points per game in the SEC. One interesting thing to note: Tennessee only averages 1.3 fewer three-point attempts per game than Kentucky; they just convert them at a lower percentage.
What Happened during the Game
Kentucky imposed their will on the game. Yes, 78 points is significantly below their season average of 88. But it is even more significantly above Tennessee’s average allowed points per game of 59. The pace of the game was closer to Kentucky’s average than Tennessee’s. In general, the game was closer to frenetic than methodical, a fact that ultimately favored Kentucky.
If you look at the box score (besides shooting and points which are, you know, relatively important), you might guess that Tennessee was the victor. Both teams grabbed 35 rebounds, but Tennessee had twelve offensive boards compared to Kentucky’s seven. Both teams had fourteen assists, slightly below Tennessee’s average of sixteen but significantly below Kentucky’s average of eighteen. Tennessee bullied Kentucky into eleven turnovers while Kentucky only forced five. It would appear that Tennessee beat Kentucky up on the glass and forced them into making sloppy plays.
That was true for much of the game. Look at the sequence below; this was textbook Tennessee basketball.
Felix Okpara flashed on the initial ball screen, forcing Travis Perry to reroute back to midcourt. Then Okpara hustled back to cover Brandon Garrison, and Jordan Gainey denied the dribble hand-off. Otega Oweh finally received the ball with about fourteen seconds left on the shot clock. Garrison faked his screen before slipping it and shooting down to the block. Oweh could have fit a pass in there if he had been allowed to drive to the right, but Gainey forced Oweh back to his left with a little help from Zakai Zeigler. Garrison did a great job sealing Okpara in the paint to give Oweh a driving lane, and it looked like Oweh would have an angle to attack. Unfortunately for him, Gainey recovered and cut off the angle. Even if Kentucky had scored, Tennessee made them work for everything they got.
While that was an example of great team defense and effort, there were also defensive miscues like the one below.
This was a nifty setup by Kentucky with a pass to the wing to set up a double screen. The Volunteers did a great job switching the initial screens and were in good position to shut this play down. But two Tennessee defenders chased Amari Williams into the paint, leaving Jaxson Robinson with an eternity to line up a three-pointer. It is not entirely clear whether Tennessee’s defensive game plan was to pack the paint on any screen-and-roll plays but leaving a good shooter that open is not a recipe for defensive success.
Here is another example.
You can’t fault Tennessee for reacting quickly to the most dangerous offensive player (in this case, Amari Williams driving to the basket). If there was a defensive mistake here, it was Zeigler failing to slow down Williams on the ball screen, allowing him to get into the paint in the first place. Maybe this was just a good offensive design by Kentucky. They had four players on one half of the court and still drove to the basket on that side; the lone offensive player in the corner was going to be wide open when their defender helped. This happens in basketball. Tennessee rotated quickly, and it left a Kentucky player wide open. Sometimes that quick defensive rotation would lead to a Tennessee steal or a Kentucky turnover. But this game, it led to a lot of wide open three-pointers for Kentucky.
The Wildcats only shot 24 threes, below their season average. But they made 12 of them, blowing away their average three-point shooting percentage of 37% for the season. Sure, they made some contested shots that we didn’t highlight. But the bottom line is that Tennessee gave up an uncharacteristic number of good looks at the basket, and Kentucky capitalized on them.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the court.
And this.
Ouch.
Tennessee was 11-45 on three-pointers in the game. The Volunteers matched Kentucky’s field goal percentage on two-point attempts, but they shot so many threes in the game that it didn’t matter. Tennessee attempted 21 more threes than Kentucky and made one fewer. Zeigler was 1-11. Chaz Lanier was 3-10. Jordan Gainey was 2-8. Darlinstone Dubar was 1-7. Igor Milecic Jr. was the lone bright spot with four made three-pointers on eight attempts.
When we predicted a Tennessee victory in this game, we said that Lanier and Zeigler were going to find their touch at home after shooting a combined 2-12 on threes against Auburn (Tennessee was collectively 4-22 from behind the arc against Auburn). That obviously did not happen. Lanier is still shooting the three well this season overall, making 41% of his attempts. That is lower than his shooting percentage last year at North Florida, but still a good mark. Jordan Gainey is shooting 33% from three this season. Zeigler, Milicic and Dubar are all shooting below 30% this season, but this is the worst career shooting season for each of those players.
What is Tennessee going to do about their three-point problem? Well, they either shoot better or they shoot less. Honestly, the correct answer is probably all of the above. We would expect Tennessee’s best players to start shooting the ball better. But they also need to start being more aggressive going to the basket. Taking 45 three-pointers is absurd, even if Kentucky is baiting you into them.
Watch this play and see if you think there was an opportunity to drive to the basket instead of shooting the three-pointer.
We think Zeigler could have penetrated when he got the ball back; he could have taken a short pull-up jumper even if he couldn’t drive all the way to the rim. Kentucky only blocked three shots the entire game, so it wasn’t as if Tennessee needed to be terrified in the paint. For the entire game, Tennessee showed that they were willing to settle for long jump shots. If they had hit them at any reasonable rate, they would have won. But this was the second game in a row where they were cold shooting, and they need to be self-aware enough to adjust. A more balanced attack will serve Tennessee well regardless of how well (or poorly) the team shoots for the remainder of the season. Rick Barnes knows this and acknowledged as much in his postgame comments.
We do not want to take anything away from what Kentucky did against the Volunteers. They played well, and they deserved to win. They controlled the pace of play and shot the ball extremely well. All five starters scored in double figures. The Wildcats played a compete basketball game.
But we can’t help but feel that Tennessee lost this game a little more than Kentucky won it. The Volunteers led at halftime, but Kentucky basically led the entire first half and then led again for almost the entire second half. They controlled the game, and every time that Tennessee made a run, they had an answer. It was a great performance in that sense. So why do we feel like Tennessee lost? Because despite Kentucky’s stellar play, it felt like Tennessee’s struggles were self-inflicted. They were entirely a reflection of Tennessee’s terrible shot selection. This felt like a battle that wasn’t lost because one side’s soldiers were scared or ill-equipped; they lost because their overall strategy and approach to the battle was largely doomed from the onset.
Tennessee led by three points at halftime after shooting 5-20 on three pointers (Kentucky was 7-16 in the first half). Leading at halftime after shooting the ball that poorly should have made the Volunteers breathe a sigh of relief. Thank goodness, we survived that and now we can get back to basics. But they didn’t. They doubled down instead.
What We Learned from the Game
Not really something learned as much as a general observation here. That game was electric. It sounds like we are diminishing Kentucky’s win and questioning Tennessee’s life choices, but that was as enjoyable a game of basketball to watch as we have seen in a long time. It was competitive throughout, and both teams played their hearts out. We loved every minute of it.
Tennessee and Kentucky are both great basketball teams. We had them ranked #4 and #5 in our SEC power rankings, respectively. They can beat anyone in the country and either could be this year’s national champion if they continue to improve. We would have said that before the game as well, but this performance by each team cemented it.
Kentucky can win on the road. The crowd at Thompson-Boling Arena was jacked up. If you are looking for the definition of a hostile (in a friendly, Southern way) environment, that was it. Kentucky got off to a great start and never let the environment bother them. The Wildcats’ win over Duke was on a neutral site, and they lost to Clemson on the road. Their win over Florida came at home, and they lost to Georgia and Vanderbilt on the road. So, there was some concern that Kentucky might need to be at Rupp Arena to reach their full potential. We think this game puts that concern to bed.
Tennessee is extremely dependent on Zakai Zeigler’s playmaking. While we wish Zeigler hadn’t pulled the trigger on so many deep shots, you can’t deny that he was still effective setting up his teammates. He had six assists against one turnover in this game. Tennessee only has two players averaging more than two assists per game (Zeigler at 7.4 and Milicic at 2.1). Kentucky has five players averaging more than two assists per game. If teams can find a way to bottle up Zeigler (easier said than done), Tennessee is going to struggle offensively. The lack of playmaking depth can lead to a lot of forced shots, and we have just seen the result of that for Tennessee.
