Weekly College Basketball Preview (1/20/25)
This edition of the weekly college basketball preview gets to take a little breather, with only six matchups between Top 25 programs. Don’t confuse the smaller quantity with a lack of quality. This week includes a handful of barn burners that are must-watch television for any college basketball junkie. The upcoming slate does share one similarity with last week: most of the Top 25 matchups take place in the Southeastern Conference. This is ultimately just a reflection of the SEC’s disproportionate representation in the Top 25 (not that it’s a bad thing).
One thing we are keeping an eye on as the season continues is whether the lower-ranked Top 25 (Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia right now) SEC squads can stay in the ranking. Will these teams continue to hang around in the rankings as they progress through the gauntlet that is SEC conference play this year? Realistically, a team with a 0.500 winning percentage in conference play is really good. There are just not a lot of nights off this season. But will that keep them in the rankings going forward? We’ll see how it goes.
On a housekeeping note, we went 7-3 on our picks in last week’s inaugural weekly college basketball preview. We will track our record throughout the season for fun, but please remember that it is easy to pick chalk for every matchup. We are not going to do that. When we think an underdog has a decent chance at winning, we will pick them even if the odds are not in our favor. We are not betting money on these games, and we are certainly not recommending that you use our predictions to make bets on these games. As a matter of fact, we would recommend that you not bet on these games at all. We are fans, just like you – we don’t know anything.
Now, let’s move on to our previews and predictions for the best college basketball matchups during the week of January 20th, 2025.
Tuesday, January 21st, 2025
#15 Mississippi State @ #6 Tennessee
Mississippi State follows up last week’s game at Auburn with another tough conference road game against Tennessee. The Bulldogs were bludgeoned by an Auburn team playing without player-of-the-year candidate Johni Broome. Mississippi State shot the ball horribly against Auburn – give the Tigers some credit for that. But Mississippi State also missed makeable shots, and we would expect them to shoot the ball better against Tennessee.
So, what did we learn about Mississippi State? They are a good basketball team. Their win over Ole Miss in a back-and-forth rivalry game was a quality win. But they are definitely in the second tier in the SEC. The Bulldogs can play with teams like Auburn and Alabama at home if they get off to a good start. But if they get jumped early on the road against those teams, they aren’t going to be able to stand toe to toe with the more talented teams in the conference.
Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, this week’s game against Tennessee will be similar. Tennessee is more talented than them and has the home court advantage. Plus, we fully expect the Volunteers to come out of the blocks ready to go after losing to Vanderbilt by one point on the road (on a missed Tennessee free throw with three seconds left).
We predict a double-digit bounce-back win for the Volunteers.
WINNER: TENNESSEE
Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025
#11 Texas A&M @ #21 Ole Miss
Ole Miss looks to get back on track after their overtime loss to Mississippi State. Texas A&M is looking for their first quality conference win; they have beaten Texas, Oklahoma and LSU to date.
We want to see if Ole Miss can get anything established down low. When the Rebels upset Alabama last week, junior forward Malik Dia scored 23 points and grabbed 19 rebounds. He’s averaging a little over nine points and six rebounds per game for the season. Playing like he did against ‘Bama raises Ole Miss to another level.
For Texas A&M, we want to see whether Wade Taylor IV returns to form. He scored 12 points in his return to the court against LSU, but his absence was noted in the 3 games prior to that. Senior scorer Zhuric Phelps needs his running mate healthy if they are going to win against the top-tier of the SEC.
This game is effectively a toss-up. Both teams are very similar statistically and are separated by 1 game in the conference standings. Give us the home team in a close game.
WINNER: OLE MISS
Friday, January 24th, 2025
#20 Michigan @ #17 Purdue
Start the weekend with a good matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the Purdue Boilermakers.
Purdue enters the game on a seven-game winning streak, most recently beating a tough Oregon team in a game that we previewed in last week’s college basketball preview. Purdue hasn’t given up more than 70 points to an opponent since their December 8th matchup against Maryland. Pair that stifling defense with Purdue’s one-two scoring combo of Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith, and Michigan is in for a tough evening at Mackey Arena.
On the flip side, Michigan boasts a high-scoring offense centered around their leading scorers, centers (yes, both of them!) Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. Both big men transferred to Michigan this season, Goldin from Florida Atlantic and Wolf from Yale, and are working to gel into a cohesive unit. Michigan has lost 4 games by a total of 8 points so don’t expect them to lay an egg in West Lafayette.
You know our preference for the home teams in these matchups, but we’ll take Michigan in this one. Expect the Wolverines’ bigs to come up big and lead Michigan to a high-profile conference win.
WINNER: MICHIGAN
Saturday, January 25th, 2025
#23 Georgia @ #5 Florida
We picked Georgia in last week’s matchup against #1 Auburn. Yes, we were wrong. But we feel vindicated by the Bulldogs’ heartbreaking two-point loss to the top-ranked team in the country. Georgia is a tough out at home, and they proved as much against the Tigers.
Unfortunately for Georgia, this game will not be at home, and they are going to have their hands full against the Florida Gators in Gainesville. They are the third highest scoring team in the SEC (behind Alabama and Kentucky) and give up the third fewest points defensively in the SEC (behind Tennessee and Georgia). No one is better at turning defense into offense than Florida.
The Gators rebounded from their one-point loss to Missouri with a 24-point stomping of Texas. The loss to Missouri ended a 16-game home winning streak; they started the streak again against Texas and hope to extend it to two games against Georgia.
We are taking the Gators in this one.
WINNER: FLORIDA
#10 Houston @ #9 Kansas
We cannot wait to watch Houston take on Kansas in Lawrence. The Cougars enter the game on a 10-game winning streak, barely edging out a feisty UCF team in their last game by one point. Kansas beat Kansas State by 10 in their last outing but were thoroughly outclassed by Iowa State in their second-to-last game.
These teams are very similar statistically. Kansas and Houston rank eighth and ninth in the Big 12 in team scoring. Defensively, Houston ranks first in the conference and Kansas ranks third.
Amongst Houston’s four leading scorers this season, two are seniors and two are juniors. All four of Kansas’s top four scorers are seniors. This game is a throwback to the pre-one and done era of college basketball. Houston and Kansas have both had more talented teams in the recent past, but they are both tough, experienced squads that are capable of beating anyone on the right night.
We are going to pick the Cougars here. Kansas has the benefit of playing at home, but we think Houston’s stifling defense is going to grind Kansas into submission.
WINNER: HOUSTON
#6 Tennessee @ #1 Auburn
Last but not least, the weekly college basketball preview’s game of the week!
Tennessee at Auburn is going to be a blast. The Volunteers are licking their wounds after last week’s one-point loss to Vanderbilt on the road. Auburn has won 10 games in a row, including the last two and a half games without leading scorer Johni Broome. In fact, Auburn’s last loss was December 4th at Cameron Indoor Stadium by six points.
Since Broome injured his ankle against South Carolina, we expected Auburn to fall off a little bit. Bruce Pearl is in the enviable position of having six double-digit scorers (five without Broome) in his lineup, but you would still expect a team to stumble a little after losing its leading scorer. In their two full games without Broome, Auburn has defeated Mississippi State and Georgia. So much for missing a step.
Tennessee’s defense leads the SEC in points allowed, only giving up 58.8 points per game. Despite that, we are starting to worry about them. In their last four games, they have given up 70 or more points three times. Maybe it’s nothing; the Volunteers did play Florida and Georgia in that stretch. But it’s something we are watching closely.
The team’s schedules are another big factor in this game. Tennessee plays a tough Mississippi State team on Tuesday night before shifting their focus to Auburn on Saturday. Auburn has an open calendar this week, giving them a little more time to recover and to focus on their game plan for the Volunteers.
Ultimately, we think this is going to be a hyper-competitive game. Tennessee’s perimeter defense (assuming it returns to form) against Auburn’s guards is going to be fun to watch. We are picking Auburn at home with extra rest, but don’t be shocked if Tennessee pulls it out.
WINNER: AUBURN
